Flexible corporate planning for uncertain times

The challenge of uncertainty in corporate planning

Companies are facing more uncertainties and risks than ever before - be it due to geopolitical crises, technological disruptions or economic fluctuations. Purely deterministic planning is therefore no longer appropriate. Instead, strategies are needed to deal with uncertainties flexibly and proactively. This article shows how modern corporate planning works, which methods have proven themselves and provides practical tips for controllers, CFOs and CEOs.

Why traditional planning is no longer enough

Many companies still rely on a one-point forecast: a fixed sales figure is planned for the next year - and it is implicitly assumed that this figure will be achieved. Do you know this too? But the reality is often different. According to a study by Hamann et al. (2022), companies with flexible planning have significantly better financial results than those with rigid planning models. Risks and uncertainties must therefore be actively integrated into planning.

Methods for taking uncertainties into account

Successful business planning requires flexibility and CoPlanner.

1. scenario planning

Identification of possible future scenarios (e.g. economic slump, supply chain disruptions)
Development of measures for the most likely scenarios
Example: An automotive supplier plans alternative sources of supply for critical raw materials if certain suppliers fail

2. rolling planning

Continuous adjustment of planning based on current developments
Reduction of deviations through shorter planning cycles (e.g. quarterly)
Example: A retail company adjusts its inventory planning monthly based on current demand forecasts

3. bandwidth planning with Monte Carlo simulation

Calculation of probability distributions for different plan values
Simulation of thousands of scenarios for better estimation of risks
Example: A CFO analyzes the probability of achieving an EBIT target if commodity prices fluctuate

4. agile planning

Decentralization of planning responsibility for greater responsiveness
Combination of top-down goals with flexible implementation by operational teams
Example: A software company relies on quarterly OCRs (Objectives & Key Results) instead of rigid annual budgets

Practical checklist 1: Success factors for flexible business planning

Analyze and evaluate uncertainties directly and actively
Develop relevant scenarios and incorporate them into the decision-making processes.
Understand planning as an iterative process rather than a fixed plan. Planning is not a one-off annual exercise, but a continuous process.
Use the advantages of digitalization: use automated forecasts and predictive analytics. This not only ensures greater efficiency, but also more transparency and better quality.
Promote agile methods in your company: Teams with more autonomy are more motivated and productive.

Practice checklist 2: Avoid common mistakes

Your planning is based only on historical data.
You ignore risks or assess them too optimistically.
You create far too many scenarios and thus jeopardize manageability.
You do not adjust your planning regularly or no longer adjust it at all.
There is a lack of close internal coordination between controlling, strategy and operations.

Conclusion: successful corporate planning requires flexibility

Modern corporate planning requires a rethink: Uncertainty is not the exception, but the rule. Companies that rely on flexible, data-driven and agile planning processes are demonstrably more successful. CFOs, controllers and CEOs should therefore question traditional methods and open up to a dynamic planning culture. The methods and checklists presented offer practical guidance for sustainable corporate management.

With CoPlanner the first steps towards stable corporate planning

Would you like to make your company crisis-proof? Professional planning software such as CoPlanner can be a first step. With CoPlanner software for business planning, you have exactly the flexibility you need to react quickly to market requirements.

Flexible scenario analyses, forward-looking forecasts and data-based decision-making processes as well as integrated risk analyses ensure you always have an overview. Use digital support to make your company more resilient, agile and future-proof.

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Corporate planning in uncertain times